بلومبرگ: کاهش عرضه پول ایالات متحده باعث توقف رشد قیمت بیت کوین خواهد شد
با وجود رشد حدود ۷۰درصدی قیمت بیت کوین در سهماهه اول سال ۲۰۲۳، همه تحلیلگران باورند ندارد که این ارز دیجیتال میتواند به روند صعودی خود ادامه دهد یا حتی سطح کنونی خود در محدوده ۳۰٬۰۰۰ دلاری را حفظ کند. انتظار رشد قیمت بیت کوین، غیرمنطقی است به گزارش کوین تلگراف، بلومبرگ اینتلیجنس در آخرین […]
با وجود رشد حدود ۷۰درصدی قیمت بیت کوین در سهماهه اول سال ۲۰۲۳، همه تحلیلگران باورند ندارد که این ارز دیجیتال میتواند به روند صعودی خود ادامه دهد یا حتی سطح کنونی خود در محدوده ۳۰٬۰۰۰ دلاری را حفظ کند.
انتظار رشد قیمت بیت کوین، غیرمنطقی است
به گزارش کوین تلگراف، بلومبرگ اینتلیجنس در آخرین گزارش خود با بررسی فضای اقتصاد کلان به ارتباط نزدیک میان عملکرد ارزهای دیجیتال و سطح نقدینگی بانک مرکزی اشاره میکند.
با خروج نقدینگی توسط بانکها از اقتصاد در زمان تورم، قیمت داراییهای پرریسک از جمله ارزهای دیجیتال کاهش مییابد. شروع سیاستهای پولی انقباضی فدرال رزرو ایالات متحده نیز همزمان با رسیدن قیمت بیت کوین به بالاترین سطح خود در اواخر سال ۲۰۲۱ آغاز شد.
با وجود بحران بانکی اخیر، بلومبرگ خاطرنشان کرد که کاهش عرضه پول M۲ سکهها و اسکناسهای در اختیار مردم که میتوانند به پول نقد تبدیل شوند) و سپردههای بانکی به این معنی است که نقدینگی همچنان رو به کاهش است.
مایک مکگلون (Mike McGlone)، استراتژیست ارشد بلومبرگ اینتلیجنس در بخشی از این تحلیل مینویسد:
ارزش داراییهای پرریسک معمولاً با افزایش نقدینگی یا کاهش عرضه پول در ایالات متحده دچار نوسان میشود و حجم سپردههای بانکی نیز نشاندهنده عاملی بازدارنده در رشد قیمت ارزهای دیجیتال است.
او خاطرنشان کرد:
با کاهش ۲درصدی حجم پول و ارزش سپردههای بانکهای تجاری نسبت به سال گذشته (بیشترین کاهش از سال ۱۹۵۹)، غیرمنطقی است که انتظار داشتیم باشیم بازار سهام، نفت خام، مس و شاخص بلومبرگ گلکسی کرپیتو (BGCI) بتوانند رشد اخیر خود را حفظ کنند.
این نگرانیهای در زمانی مطرح میشود که بیت کوین برای تبدیل مقاومت تاریخی خود به سطح حمایت در تلاش است و به نظر میرسد که خریداران قادر به ایجاد تغییر بزرگی در بازار نیستند.
در بحث نقدینگی، دیگر تحلیلگران پیش از این خاطرنشان کردند که ارزهای دیجیتال اکنون به اقدامات بانکهای مرکزی دیگر، غیر از فدرال رزرو نیز واکنش نشان میدهند. شایان ذکر است که چین و ژاپن در سال جاری، نقدینگی به بازار تزریق کردند.
در همین حال، بلومبرگ میگوید که سوال اصلی در آغاز ماه آوریل (فروردین) این است که چه چیزی روند کاهش نقدینگی را متوقف میکند؟
بیشتر بانکهای مرکزی که همچنان سیاستهای پولی انقباضی دارند که میتواند به معنی کاهش شاخص بلومبرگ گلکسی کرپیتو باشد. برداشت ما این است که بیت کوین درگیر عوامل بازدارنده رشد خواهد بود، اما در نهایت معاملات آن شبیه به طلا و اوراق قرضه خزانهداری خواهد شد.
سقوط شاخص دلار و احتمال رشد قیمت بیت کوین
بر اساس دادههای بازار، بیت کوین هماکنون در محدوده ۲۷٬۹۰۰ دلاری در حال معامله است.
![بلومبرگ: کاهش عرضه پول ایالات متحده باعث توقف رشد قیمت بیت کوین خواهد شد بلومبرگ: کاهش عرضه پول ایالات متحده باعث توقف رشد قیمت بیت کوین خواهد شد](https://cdn.arzdigital.com/uploads/2023/04/BTCUSD_2023-04-07_12-41-19-1024x596.jpg)
در اتفاقی (کوتاهمدت) مثبت برای داراییهای پررسیک، شاخص دلار آمریکا (DXY) بار دیگر به زیر سطح ۱۰۲ سقوط کرد.
حسابکاربری محبوب کُلد بِلاد شیلر (Cold Blooded Shiller) در توییتر با بررسی این وضعیت، موقتاً نسبت به افزایش قیمت بیت کوین اظهار خوشبینی کرد.
با این حال، جاستین بنت (Justin Bennett) با اشاره به یک سطح حمایتی، پیشبینی کرد که شاخص دلار در آینده به سطح پیشین خود باز خواهد گشت.
![بلومبرگ: کاهش عرضه پول ایالات متحده باعث توقف رشد قیمت بیت کوین خواهد شد بلومبرگ: کاهش عرضه پول ایالات متحده باعث توقف رشد قیمت بیت کوین خواهد شد](https://cdn.arzdigital.com/uploads/2023/04/U.S.-dollar-index-DXY-annotated-chart.-Source-Justin-BennettTwitter-1024x604.png)
او هشدار داد:
تا زمانی که دلار هنوز ذخیره ارزی جهانی است، تمام شعارهایی که میگویند «دلار مرده است» بیمعنا خواهند بود.
منبع: arzdigital.com
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